Ovago Vile Vile

Ow’embaliga

Rope Bridge

Main Messages

• Departure from destructive habits of the past
• Tolerance and respect take root at all levels of Society
• Unity vital for national development and to face traumas of the past
• Diversity of the country an asset

• Can current development paradigms provide equitable growth for all citizens? If they don’t, to what extent are the long-term stability and unity of the nation compromised?
• Any vision of development must be comprehensive and national, yielding results for all and not just a few

• Institutional reforms must be accompanied by political will to see them through to the end
• The nation must unlearn and discard the destructive habits of the past (sectarianism, waste, corruption) that have fomented and perpetuated conflict

Key Actors

• Political parties
• Regional and local governments
• Parliament, judiciary and media
• Technocrats
• Private sector
• Donors
• East African Community
   

• Political elite
• Donors
• The poor (economic and internally displaced people)
• Rebel groups/armed dissidents
• Military/security apparatus
• Business elite

• Political elite
• Civil society
• Military/security apparatus
• International community

Crisis launching story

• Realization of the futility of conflict
• Fruits of the peace dividend recognized and welcomed around the country

• Growing gap between the haves and have-nots
• Conflict in the north parked in a low-level intensity stalemate which is nonetheless hard on the local inhabitants
• Political tensions compounded by ethnicity and sectarian feelings
• Apparent inability of government to redress the above issues

• Poor management of post-election transition reinforces mistrust in governmen
• Highly partisan government; deepening social and economic injustices not tackled fuel broad resentment against government
• Attempts to roll back democratic gains by the government as it seeks to assert its authority

Early signals/ elements of warning

• Tensions around transition
• Search for a government of national unity

• Elite struggles for control of power and resources
• Inability to conclude the conflict in the North with any finality
• Slow implosion of the rural economy triggers migration towards the urban centres

• Increased intolerance with the non-provision of services; inability of government to maintain its promises
• Public agitation for change(s)

Main Theme

• National unity
• Reconciliation, renewal and reconstruction

• Displacement, disparity and disintegration

• Legitimacy of government dependent on its fostering national consensus and tackling pressing problems within society