Ovago Vile Vile

Ow’embaliga

Rope Bridge

Key Turning Points

• Establishment of government of national unity with opposition forces
• Implementation of a national dialogue/ healing process
• Decentralization of power to the regions

• Resource depletion/collapse of rural economies and livelihoods
• Deepening of economic liberalization, in particular land reforms
• Phasing out of aid subsidies

• Non implementation of election manifesto
  Breakdown of dialogue with and attempts to stifle opposition forces
• Lack of resources to deliver social services and projects

Main Drivers

• Fear of renewed conflict as a result of the transition failing
• A shared vision that Uganda can be ‘bigger and better’
• Universal Primary Education

• Greed and callousness of the political and business elites
• Legacy of violence, conflict and mistrust

• Intransigence of the political elite in power and their role in collapsing avenues for dialogue
• Deepening of poverty and social exclusion

Main Challenges

• Building national unity – regaining the trust of citizens in their leaders and national institutions
• Economic reforms – developing rural areas and creating employment for a growing population

• Maintaining the viability of rural economies and livelihoods
• Absorption and integration of the migrants from the rural areas in urban areas

• Building a national conversation on ‘what needs to be done’
• Building trust and tolerance in a climate fraught with tensions
• Maintaining the faith of the populace in democracy and its institutions

Assumptions

• Efforts at reconciliation are welcomed and successful
• Leadership is able to work closely with opposition forces in national unity government for a prolonged period of time
• Economy is able to yield sufficient returns to generate incomes and employment

• Ethnic and sectarian divides will morph into class issues, particularly amongst the poor and disenfranchised
• Conflict will not be widespread or spontaneous, and that it will be largely confined to the north and contained in the slum areas

• That there is unity of purpose within the opposition that creates sufficient critical mass to take on the regime
• That the regime can outlast its opponents over two electoral seasons and still maintain a solid grip on affairs

Most interesting and innovative idea to emerge from the story

• National healing process to redress past misdeeds/traumas which facilitates process of building national unity
• Environment is harnessed as a source of wealth creation, employment and revitalization of rural areas

• Group identity is redefined along class lines and no longer across ethnic or sectarian divides
• Prolonged and deepening inequalities eventually undermine national unity

• Civil society is able to provide a critical counterweight to the excesses of the regime and at the same time remain sufficiently vibrant and legitimate alternative for change
• Regime change – external and internal forces collaborate in interests of both the nation and the region